This was my first trade of the new season and here is the full picture of it, step by step.
Entering the market: I decided to go for goals and both teams scoring for two main reasons: Liverpool conceding many goals and Newcastle being solid and motivated at home – more than capable of scoring.
My correct score market selections were: 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-3 and 3-1 and I put €5 on each, so the total liability added up to €25. I was also considering laying Liverpool mostly because a lot of money were traded in the market against them shortly before kick-off but in the end I dropped that idea.
There was another thing to address: what if the game goes against my expectations? What if there aren’t many goals? Should I just sit, wait and pray for goals and when it is 1-2 or 2-1, start trading? Of course NOT!
In-play trading: The market was expecting goals and I decided to scalp the U/O 2.5 goals market, go against the expectations and secure green in case of no quick goals. I laid over 2.5 goals at 1.63 odds (liability 59 but of course I wasn’t risking the whole amount). In order to green the market at €25, I had to exit (lay under 2.5 goals) at 1.78 odds. At that point it was important to watch the game and monitor the action. Usually going beyond 20 minutes is not recommended (you won’t believe how many goals are scored right after that 20 minutes mark!) but the situation was under control and my position was closed.
So now, I had a free trade and the worst case scenario was ending with a scratch. I needed goals to reduce the red on the CS market.
Newcastle were pushing but unexpectedly Liverpool made it 0-1 in 35th minute and in addition Gordon was sent off just before the HT whistle.
I could then analyze the situation during HT. The markets were of course expecting Liverpool to win to nil and I had to react and start covering such outcomes. In the HT break I was able to scalp a bit out of AOAW (backed at 7.2, laid at 7) and 0-3 (backed at 4.1, laid at 4) (couldn’t see the score staying 0-1 or Liverpool scoring just 1 and making it 0-2 with one player advantage).
Liverpool made it 0-2 right after 2nd half started and I started looking at some potential lays to improve my position on 0-3 and AOAW but my position improved heavily when Newcastle made it 1-2 in 57th minute.
I couldn’t see the game ending 1-2 with 10 playing against 11 and I was comfortable with using the whole green on 1-2 and making it €-25, so in case of 1-2 being the final score, I would with nothing and lose nothing.
I laid 1-2 at 4.3 odds (stake 5) and then at 3.85 odds (stake 13.2).
Closing the trade: They kept me waiting long but Newcastle made it 2-2 in 88th minute. In this case, all I needed to do was to lay 2-2 and close the position (laid at 1.46 odds, stake 46). I was considering putting another 2-2 lay to push a bit more green to other scores but in the end decided not to – I didn’t want to overpush the trade.
You can see below the final results in both markets. Feel free to ask me any questions on X.
